Likelihood ratio estimation without gold standard: a case study evaluating brucellosis c-ELISA in cattle and water buffalo in Trinidad

The likelihood ratio (LR) is a measure of association that quantifies how many more times likely a particular test result is from an infected animal compared to one that is uninfected. They are ratios of conditional probabilities and cannot be interpreted at the individual animal level without information concerning pretest probabilities. Their usefulness is that they can be used to update the prior belief that the individual has the outcome of interest through a modification of Bayes' theorem. Bayesian analytic techniques can be used for the evaluation of diagnostic tests and estimation of LRs when information concerning a gold standard is not available. As an example, these techniques were applied to the estimation of LRs for a competitive ELISA (c-ELISA) for diagnosis of Brucella abortus infection in cattle and water buffalo in Trinidad.Sera from four herds of cattle (n = 391) and four herds of water buffalo (n = 381) in Trinidad were evaluated for Brucella-specific antibodies using a c-ELISA. On the basis of previous serologic (agglutination) test results in the same animals, iterative simulation modeling was used to classify animals as positive or negative for Brucella infection. LRs were calculated for six categories of the c-ELISA proportion inhibition (PI) results pooled for cattle and water buffalo and yielded the following estimations (95% probability intervals): <0.10 PI, 0.05 (0ùC0.13); 0.10ùC0.249 PI, 0.11 (0.04ùC0.20); 0.25ùC0.349 PI, 0.77 (0.23ùC1.63); 0.35-0.499 PI, 3.22 (1.39ùC6.84); 0.50ùC0.749 PI, 17.9 (6.39ùC77.4); ­í0.75 PI, 423 (129ùC­è). LRs are important for calculation of post-test probabilities and maintaining the quantitative nature of diagnostic test results.

Likelihood ratio estimation without a gold standard: a case study evaluating a brucellosis c-ELISA in cattle and water buffalo of Trinidad.

The likelihood ratio (LR) is a measure of association that quantifies how many more times likely a particular test result is from an infected animal compared to one that is uninfected. They are ratios of conditional probabilities and cannot be interpreted at the individual animal level without information concerning pretest probabilities. Their usefulness is that they can be used to update the prior belief that the individual has the outcome of interest through a modification of Bayes' theorem. Bayesian analytic techniques can be used for the evaluation of diagnostic tests and estimation of LRs when information concerning a gold standard is not available. As an example, these techniques were applied to the estimation of LRs for a competitive ELISA (c-ELISA) for diagnosis of Brucella abortus infection in cattle and water buffalo in Trinidad. Sera from four herds of cattle (n=391) and four herds of water buffalo (n=381) in Trinidad were evaluated for Brucella-specific antibodies using a c-ELISA. On the basis of previous serologic (agglutination) test results in the same animals, iterative simulation modeling was used to classify animals as positive or negative for Brucella infection. LRs were calculated for six categories of the c-ELISA proportion inhibition (PI) results pooled for cattle and water buffalo and yielded the following estimations (95% probability intervals): <0.10 PI, 0.05 (0-0.13); 0.10-0.249 PI, 0.11 (0.04-0.20); 0.25-0.349 PI, 0.77 (0.23-1.63); 0.35-0.499 PI, 3.22 (1.39-6.84); 0.50-0.749 PI, 17.9 (6.39-77.4); > or =0.75 PI, 423 (129-infinity). LRs are important for calculation of post-test probabilities and maintaining the quantitative nature of diagnostic test results.

Ear-tag retention and identification methods for extensively managed water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) in Trinidad

Thirty-two young domestic water buffalo were studied to evaluate ear-tag retention during an epidemiologic field trial. Plastic ear-tags were placed in both ears before the start of the trial, which was implemented in an extensively managed domestic water buffalo herd of approximately 1000 animals in Trinidad from 1999–2001. The presence or absence of ear-tags was recorded at the times of animal handling. The rate of ear-tag loss was modeled using a parametric survival analysis assuming an exponential rate of loss. A gamma distribution was used to estimate the amount of time that each animal would be positively identified based only on the presence or absence of one or more ear-tags. The overall median ear-tag retention was 272 days. The estimated rate of ear-tag loss was 0.0024 ear-tags lost per day. The use of ear-tags alone might not be sufficient for long-term identification of extensively managed animal populations.

Ear-tag retention and identification methods for extensively managed water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) in Trinidad

Thirty-two young domestic water buffalo were studied to evaluate ear-tag retention during an epidemiologic field trial. Plastic ear-tags were placed in both ears before the start of the trial, which was implemented in an extensively managed domestic water buffalo herd of approximately 1000 animals in Trinidad from 1999-2001. The presence or absence of ear-tags was recorded at the times of animal handling. The rate of ear-tag loss was modeled using a parametric survival analysis assuming an exponential rate of loss. A gamma distribution was used to estimate the amount of time that each animal would be positively identified based only on the presence or absence of one or more ear-tags. The overall median ear-tag retention was 272 days. The estimated rate of ear-tag loss was 0.0024 ear-tags lost per day. The use of ear-tags alone might not be sufficient for long-term identification of extensively managed animal populations.

Ear-tag retention and identification methods for extensively managed water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) in Trinidad.

Thirty-two young domestic water buffalo were studied to evaluate ear-tag retention during an epidemiologic field trial. Plastic ear-tags were placed in both ears before the start of the trial, which was implemented in an extensively managed domestic water buffalo herd of approximately 1000 animals in Trinidad from 1999-2001. The presence or absence of ear-tags was recorded at the times of animal handling. The rate of ear-tag loss was modeled using a parametric survival analysis assuming an exponential rate of loss. A gamma distribution was used to estimate the amount of time that each animal would be positively identified based only on the presence or absence of one or more ear-tags. The overall median ear-tag retention was 272 days. The estimated rate of ear-tag loss was 0.0024 ear-tags lost per day. The use of ear-tags alone might not be sufficient for long-term identification of extensively managed animal populations.

Evaluation of brucellosis RB51 vaccine for domestic water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) in Trinidad.

Thirty-two young domestic water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) were obtained from a brucellosis-free farm to determine effectiveness of RB51 vaccination for prevention of Brucella infection under natural-exposure conditions in Trinidad. Study animals (20 males and 12 females 5-20 months old) were assigned to vaccination or control groups, using a block randomization design ensuring equal sex distributions between groups. The vaccination group received commercially available RB51 at the recommended calfhood dose of (1.0-3.4)x10(10) colony-forming units (CFU) and controls received 2ml sterile saline. Vaccination did not result in positive serologic results as measured by four traditional agglutination tests: standard tube agglutination test (STAT), standard plate agglutination test (SPAT), buffered plate agglutination test (BPAT), and card agglutination. Study animals were maintained in a brucellosis-positive herd in southern Trinidad with an estimated 56% prevalence to allow for natural exposure to B. abortus, which was evaluated using STAT, SPAT, BPAT, and card tests. Animals were sampled seven times over 2 years and were classified as positive if they had persistent agglutination titers or had Brucella isolated from specimens collected at completion of the study. Five of the original 32 study animals were lost to follow-up during the field trial. Six of the 14 (43%) vaccinated animals completing the study were classified as positive for Brucella infection-as were two of the 13 (15%) control animals (P=0.21). Isolates from four vaccinates and one control were confirmed as B. abortus biovar 1.

Farm- and host-level risk factors for papillomatous digital dermatitis in Chilean dairy cattle.

A cross-sectional study was conducted in southern Chile between January and March, 1996, to identify risk factors for papillomatous digital dermatitis (PDD) in lactating dairy and dual-purpose cows. A total of 3,265 cows from 22 farms were examined in the milking parlor for PDD lesions. Additional information was collected from dairies' computerized records and by direct interview of managers. Data were analyzed using logistic and logistic-binomial regression (with dairy as a random-effect term). German Red-Pied (dual-purpose) cows were significantly (P < 0.05) less likely (odds ratio (OR) = 0.3) to have PDD lesions than German Black-Pied and Holstein crossbreds. First-parity cows had the highest odds of PDD, and odds diminished, in a dose-effect manner, as parity increased. Odds of PDD increased with increasing days in lactation. Cows that calved during winter were more likely to have PDD (OR = 1.4) than those calving at any other season. Cows on farms that bought heifers in the past 10 years had a 3-fold increase in the odds of PDD compared to those on farms that never bought heifers. Loose-housed cows had a higher risk of PDD (OR = 7), followed by cows in free stalls or in open corrals (OR = 2.8 and 1.3, respectively), compared to cows on pasture all year. Cows on dairies that used a footbath during 1996 were less likely (OR = 0.3) to have PDD than those in dairies not using one. Parlor type was associated with PDD, but this was likely an effect of parlor design on ease of inspection of cows' feet. A policy of trimming all cows' vs. only lame cows' feet and a policy about buying adult cows did not have significant effects on PDD risk.

Effect of weaning time and associated management practices on postweaning chronic diarrhea in captive rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta).

OBJECTIVE: Our purpose was to assess the extent to which early weaning and other weaning-management factors affect development of postweaning chronic diarrhea in captive rhesus monkeys at the California Regional Primate Research Center between 1992 and 1995. METHODS: Data for weaning, management, and onset of diarrhea were obtained from daily records. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess whether the risk of chronic diarrhea was related to early weaning. RESULTS: Monkeys that were lighter at weaning had a threefold increase in risk of postweaning chronic diarrhea (P = 0.07), compared with that in heavier monkeys. An episode of preweaning diarrhea increased the risk of postweaning chronic diarrhea twofold (P = 0.08). Relocation of monkeys to outdoor facilities in the fall was associated with a fivefold decrease in risk (P < 0.001), compared with that of other seasons, and weaning in 1993 was associated with a twofold decrease in risk, compared with that of other years (P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Multiple factors need to be considered for prevention of postweaning chronic diarrhea, including weaning weight, preweaning diarrhea, season weaned, and weaning conditions that change from year to year.

Influence of fecal shedding of Salmonella organisms on mortality in hospitalized horses.

OBJECTIVES: To predict mortality of horses by use of clinical data from the first day of hospitalization, to determine whether fecal shedding of Salmonella organisms is related to severity of clinical disease, and to determine the impact of fecal shedding of Salmonella organisms on mortality. DESIGN: Prospective study. ANIMALS: 1,446 hospitalized horses. PROCEDURE: Medical information was obtained from horses hospitalized in an intensive care unit or isolation facility during a 4.5-year period. A model was created to predict mortality, using covariates determined on the day of admission. Predicted mortality provided a measure of clinical condition. Predicted mortality was compared between horses that were and were not shedding Salmonella organisms in their feces to determine whether shedding was associated with severity of disease. Predicted and observed mortality between horses were also compared to evaluate the association between fecal shedding of Salmonella organisms and mortality. RESULTS: 92 horses were identified as shedding Salmonella organisms. In a multivariable model, 4 variables (heart rate, respiratory rate, rectal temperature, and clinical management) were associated with mortality. A higher predicted probability of death was observed in horses that shed Salmonella krefeld or more than 1 serotype. Relative risk (RR) of mortality was high for horses shedding S typhimurium (RR, 1.94; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 3.59) and multiple serotypes (RR, 4.75; 95% confidence interval, 2.29 to 9.84). When the clinical condition (i.e., prior predicted probability of death) was taken into consideration, fecal shedding of Salmonella organisms was not significantly associated with mortality. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: In this horse population, fecal shedding of S krefeld was associated with more severe clinical conditions at the time of admission; however, fecal shedding of Salmonella organisms during hospitalization did not alter predicted mortality.

Risk analysis of quarantine station performance: a case study of the importation of equine infectious anemia virus-infected horses into California.

We examined the risk of importing and mistakenly releasing equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV)-infected horses into California. A computer simulation model was constructed to evaluate current and alternative quarantine station procedures; 150,000 iterations were performed to simulate 15 different scenarios of 10,000 horses imported into the state over a 14-year period. Simulation results showed that under current conditions of low EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, increasing the quarantine period would not decrease the number of EIAV-infected horses mistakenly released from quarantine. In a worst case scenario of high EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, the model predicted 10 EIAV-infected horses would be imported, of these 1 or none would escape detection and would be released mistakenly if quarantine duration were 3 or 14 days, respectively. This model may be applied to other quarantine station situations for evaluating the importation risk for EIAV and other diseases.

Combined parenteral and oral administration of oxytetracycline for control of infectious bovine keratoconjunctivitis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether combined parenteral and oral administration of oxytetracycline would ameliorate a herd outbreak of infectious bovine keratoconjunctivitis (IBK) and to compare efficacy of this regimen with that of subconjunctival administration of procaine penicillin G. DESIGN: Randomized field trial. ANIMALS: 119 Hereford calves in a herd undergoing a naturally occurring outbreak of IBK. PROCEDURE: Calves were randomly assigned to 1 of the following 3 groups: oxytetracycline treatment, procaine penicillin G treatment, and control. After initial treatment, calves were examined 3 times/wk for 7 weeks. The surface area of all corneal ulcers was measured during each examination. Ocular secretions were collected from all calves at least weekly and were tested for Moraxella bovis. RESULTS: Calves treated with oxytetracycline had a lower prevalence of IBK than did calves treated with procaine penicillin G or control calves and required fewer additional treatments than did calves treated with procaine penicillin G. Mean time for healing of corneal ulcers was significantly less for calves that received oxytetracycline or procaine penicillin G than for control calves. Calves treated with oxytetracycline developed fewer corneal ulcers and fewer recurrent ulcers than did calves in the other groups. Moraxella bovis was isolated less often from ocular secretions collected from calves in the oxytetracycline group than from calves in the other groups. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Combined parenteral and oral administration of oxytetracycline appears to be an effective method of reducing severity of a herd outbreak of IBK and may be superior to treatment of affected animals with procaine penicillin G.

Papillomatous digital dermatitis in Chilean dairies and evaluation of a screening method.

Outbreaks of papillomatous digital dermatitis (PDD) have been reported from many countries, but there is little information on prevalence and geographic distribution of the disease. Our objectives were to describe prevalence of PDD on dairies belonging to the two main dairy-producer associations in Chile, and to evaluate a milking-parlor screening method for detection of PDD in dairy cows. First, a self-administered questionnaire was sent to all 214 association dairy managers. Seventy percent of the 119 respondents had observed PDD on their dairies. About 83% of the 63 responding managers had first seen PDD during the previous 10 years. Subsequently, a random sample of 43 dairies stratified by association was selected from the total 214 for PDD screening. During milking, we inspected cows' feet for PDD lesions; 91% of dairies had cows affected by PDD; median PDD prevalence for milking cows in dairies was 6.1%. Finally, in one dairy, PDD screening at the parlor was compared to PDD diagnosis by inspecting restrained cows in a chute. The screening method had a sensitivity of 0.72, and a specificity of 0.99. This study demonstrated that PDD was widespread on study dairies in Chile. The screening test presented can be used as a cost efficient method to estimate prevalence of PDD either on individual dairies or in large-scale surveys.

Incidence and risk factors for bumblefoot (pododermatitis) in rehabilitated raptors.

A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 821 raptors of 12 representative species, admitted to the California Raptor Center (CRC), during 1980-1990. The incidence rate for bumblefoot was 52 cases per 100 bird-years at risk. Eagles and hawks (buteos) were more likely to develop bumblefoot, and did so earlier during their captivity than other species. Also, raptors admitted with a limb fracture had the greatest risk (OR = 4.2) of developing bumblefoot than any other condition on entry. Median time from admission to development of bumblefoot was 52 days, and median duration of bumblefoot was 23 days.

Humoral response of dairy cattle to spirochetes isolated from papillomatous digital dermatitis lesions.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a humoral response against spirochetes isolated from papillomatous digital dermatitis (PDD) lesions is elicited in dairy cattle affected with PDD. SAMPLE POPULATION: 41 cattle with PDD from 8 dairies (study population) and 30 cattle from 2 dairies free of PDD (control population). Additionally evaluated were 32 cattle from a dairy with a past history of PDD but no current disease, and 52 cattle from a dairy with high prevalence of PDD, 25 with and 27 without detectable lesions. PROCEDURE: ELISA were used to evaluate the humoral response of all cattle to representative isolates from 2 groups of spirochetes of unknown species isolated from PDD lesions. Specificity of the response was evaluated, using immune sera prepared against each of the spirochetes, and by adsorption studies of immune and field sera. The potential for confounding by an antibody response to other spirochetes associated with diseases of cattle was assessed. RESULTS: The antibody response (specific) to both PDD spirochete groups of cows with PDD was significantly increased, compared with that of cows from PDD-free dairies. There was no association between antibody response to PDD-associated spirochetes and antibody response to other spirochetal diseases of cattle. None of the cattle from the dairy with previous history of PDD but without current disease were classified as test positive by either PDD ELISA. There was a significant (P < 0.01) difference in classification results for both PDD ELISA for cattle with PDD from the dairy with a high herd prevalence of PDD, compared with cattle without detectable disease from the same dairy. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The humoral response in cattle with PDD lesions was significantly different from that in cattle without detectable lesions, thus providing additional information regarding the potential role of spirochetes isolated from PDD lesions in the etiopathogenesis of PDD.

Case-control study of an outbreak of clinical disease attributable to Salmonella menhaden infection in eight dairy herds.

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors associated with Salmonella menhaden associated disease in adult dairy cows during an outbreak in California. DESIGN: Case-control study. SAMPLE POPULATION: 8 case dairies that had > or = 1 adult animal that had clinical signs of salmonellosis and from which S menhaden was isolated and 22 control dairies, 16 of which were matched on the basis of herd size and county and 6 of which were matched on the basis of herd size, county, and breed (Jersey). PROCEDURE: A questionnaire was developed and reviewed with the herdsman or owner of each dairy. Primary areas of concern were herd management, disease characteristics, and feed-related information. RESULTS: Use of 1 particular feed mill and feeding animal fat were significant risk factors for clinical disease attributable to S menhaden infection. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Feed should not be overlooked as a potential source of Salmonella organisms in dairy herds.

Comparison of ketosis, clinical mastitis, somatic cell count, and reproductive performance between free stall and tie stall barns in Norwegian dairy herds with automatic feeding.

Differences in ketosis and clinical mastitis rates, mean somatic cell counts (SCC) and reproductive performance scores (fertility status index = FS-index) between herds housed in free stall (n = 533) and tie stall (n = 59) barns were measured in relation to management and environmental factors in a retrospective cohort study of Norwegian dairy farms with automatic grain feeding systems. Herds with tie stalls were found to have a higher clinical mastitis rate, (61.6 cases per 100 cow-years versus 46.4 cases per 100 cow-years (p < 0.01)); a significantly higher proportion of herds with ketosis, (relative risk = 1.59, (p < 0.01)); and a lower mean fertility status index, (67.3 versus 82.8 (p < 0.01)). No significant difference in mean SCC was found between the 2 groups of dairies (p = 0.32). Large herds had higher Loge geometric mean SCC than small herds (p < 0.01) and herds with high SCC had lower milk production than herds with low SCC (p < 0.01). Herds that scored "very good" on cow cleanliness had significantly lower adjusted mean SCC than herds with scores of "average" or "good" (p < 0.05). Herds in barns with a concrete floor had an adjusted mean number of cases of clinical mastitis of 51.4 per 100 cow-years, 14 per cent higher than herds in barns with rubber mats, litter bed or wood (45.2 cases per 100 cow-years) (p < 0.05). Herds with high milk production level had higher FS-index than herds with low milk production (p < 0.01). Lower disease rates and the higher fertility status measured in the present study favor free stall herds over tie stall herds.

Papillomatous digital dermatitis on a commercial dairy farm in Mexicali, Mexico: incidence and effect on reproduction and milk production.

This retrospective study of papillomatous digital dermatitis (PDD) was performed using data for cows that calved between July 1993 and June 1994 on a Mexicali, Mexico, dairy farm in order to calculate incidence rates, and to compare milk yield and reproduction data between affected and nonaffected dairy cows. A total of 190 out of 577 (33%) cows were affected during lactation and six (1%) during the dry period. Fifty-two of 77 (68%) cows that had lesions in the previous lactation and were also present on the farm in the current lactation had lesions in the current lactation. The highest risk for PDD occurred during the first month of lactation (9%). The yearly estimated cumulative incidence risk was 35% and the incidence density rate was 44.6 cases per 1000 cow-months. More animals were affected in summer and fall than in winter and spring. Purchased animals were 3.4 times more likely to be affected than animals born on the farm. Survival analyses indicated healthy cows conceived 93 days after calving (median), but affected cows conceived 113 days after calving (median) (P < 0.01). PDD-affected animals produced less milk than healthy cows, but the difference was not statistically significant in the multiple regression.

Papillomatous digital dermatitis in 458 dairies.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate prevalence of papillomatous digital dermatitis (PDD) in California dairies during 1993, to describe temporal and spatial patterns of PDD and response of cows to treatment, and to evaluate herd-related risk factors for PDD. DESIGN: Epidemiologic survey. SAMPLE POPULATION: All southern California dairies and a 50% random sample of the rest of California dairies. PROCEDURE: A questionnaire was mailed to managers of 1,429 selected dairies. RESULTS: Prevalence of PDD during 1993 was significantly higher for dairies in the south (75.3%) and central (68.8%) regions, compared with north coast (33.3%) and north (23.1%) regions of the state. Herd mean and median proportions of affected cows in PDD-affected herds were 11.6 (SEM = 0.9) and 5%, respectively. Most (74%) dairy managers surveyed observed PDD for the first time during 1992 or 1993. Highest PDD activity was reported as taking place in summer in the south and in fall and winter in the north coast and north regions; an obvious pattern was not determined for the central region. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: PDD was widespread in California dairies during 1993 and affected a high proportion of cows, especially in the south and central regions of the state.

Economics of feeding pasteurized colostrum and pasteurized waste milk to dairy calves.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the marginal contribution of pasteurization of waste milk and colostrum to gross margin per calf at weaning and to estimate the minimum number of cattle on a dairy farm for pasteurization to be profitable. DESIGN: Randomized, controlled, clinical trial. ANIMALS: 300 Holstein calves. PROCEDURE: The performance of calves fed pasteurized colostrum and waste milk was compared with the performance of calves fed nonpasteurized colostrum and waste milk. Costs, revenues, and gross margins for the 2 groups were compared. RESULTS: Calves fed pasteurized colostrum and waste milk were worth an extra $8.13 in gross margin/calf, compared with calves fed nonpasteurized colostrum and waste milk. The minimum number of cattle for which feeding pasteurized colostrum and waste milk was calculated to be economically feasible was 315 calves/d (1,260-cow dairy farm). CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: An economic benefit was associated with feeding pasteurized colostrum and waste milk. Additional benefits that may accrue include higher mean weight gain and lower mortality rate of calves as well as calves that have fewer days in which they are affected with diarrhea and pneumonia.